Philippine Central Bank sees inflation accelarating in November
The Philippine central bank expects inflation to accelerate further in November
Inflation for November is  forecast to range between 2.4% to 3.3%
This is due to the  impact of recent typhoons in the main island of Luzon.
Inflation  already accelerated 1.6% on year in October.
The average inflation rate in the first 10 months is at  3.2%.
The central bank sees inflation to hover 2.5% and 4.5% for this year.
2010 inflation is seen between 3.5% and 5.5%.

Disappointing 3Q09 growth

· Philippine economic growth in the 3Q09 fell below expectations.
· COMMENT: 3Q09 GDP grew 0.8% Yoy, dragged by the decline in manufacturing (-4.4%) and a sluggish farm sector (+1.6%).

· Services, which account for over half of GDP, rose 4.0% on year,

· On the demand side, figures were slowed down by the negative growth in Capital Formation (-11%) and Exports (-14%).

· 2Q09 growth was also at +0.8%.

· Average forecast on the street was a +1.9% expansion, making the actual figure pale and worrisome.

· On a seasonally adjusted comparison, GDP rose 1.0% over the 2Q09 output.

· Poor results might impact in the long run especially after the IMF just revised expectations this year from +1% to +1.5%.

· Currently, Philippine growth would be happy enough to reached the lower end of the target growth range of +0.8% to +1.8%

· Consumer spending typically rises in the 4Q and remittances are at its highest levels in November-December. Reconstruction activities due to the typhoon could also prop up economic activity in the last quarter.

· Personal Consumer Expenditure growth remains critical next year as election spending triggers recovery.

· PCE merely grew +0.2% on a seasonally adjusted format, its lowest since revised data in 1995.

Central Bank intervenes to support USD

· Peso strengthened further, hitting a fresh 9-month high of P46.71 to a dollar vs P47.10 the previous day.

· Attributed to strong inflows from overseas workers who sent home funds to families affected by Typhoon Ketsana

· Philippine central bank reportedly bought around $200 million at several levels, with bulk at  46.72 mark.

· The Philippines’ annual inflation rate could fall below zero in August before slightly picking up in the coming months.

· The central bank forecast the annual change in August consumer prices to range between a 0.3% fall and a rise of 0.6%, after a 0.2% climb in July, the slowest in more than two decades.

· Tetangco said the low inflation forecast continues to be driven by base effects mainly from oil and oil-affected products whose prices have dropped significantly year on year.

· “Inflation is expected to take on a slightly increasing pace but still stay in the single-digit path over the forecast horizon.”—he added

· The government will release the official inflation data for August on September 4.