A recent report has pegged the Philippine inflation at 4.5%, quite a high number which caused a lot of concern for many. My friend & respected economist Dr. Alvin Ang says that the inflation is mainly due to increasing food prices which can be partly blamed on Typhoon Yolanda. The government is unfazed with the high inflation number and are still confident that they can keep inflation within acceptable limits. There are talks that interest rates might go up as a means to control inflation.

Just what is inflation? Investopedia defines inflation as “the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling. Central banks attempt to stop severe inflation, along with severe deflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive growth of prices to a minimum.”

Someone asked me what inflation is and how it can affect them?  Let me answer in a more practical way — simply put, inflation is a measure being used to track the rising costs of general goods and services. Because of inflation, the purchasing power of our peso will actually deteriorate. Countering inflation is done through an increase in income– as long as the increase in income is equal or higher than inflation, things will be ok. The case for your savings is a different one. If your savings do not appreciate faster than inflation, the real value of your savings will go down in terms of what goods and services it can buy. The solution to this is investing your money where it can grow faster than inflation.

Now, where can you invest your money where it can grow faster than inflation? Typically, stocks or equity-laced funds (mutual funds, UITF & VUL) and real-estate are good investments that will can outperform inflation in the long run — emphasis on the long run… meaning, in the long-term…. as in after many, many years.  When investing for long-term objectives like retirement, be mindful of inflation.

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The rising cost of goods and services have been a big concern to us Filipinos for many months now. Official numbers puts inflation at around 4% but it seems that the rising prices goes beyond the official numbers. Generally, the barometer to measure inflation is the Consumer Price Index of the CPI. An earlier 3 part blog delved a lot about the rising prices and how we can survive amidst the higher cost of goods and services. For me, CPI is not a very realistic measurement of personal inflation since there are many items in our budget that are not being measured in the index such as education, among others. We all experience that tuition and education related expenses are somewhere between 5 to as much as 12% and if education composes a big chunk of our budgets, actual realized inflation will be much higher than the index.

Read Rising prices blog, part 1, part 2, part 3

I was listening to a podcast earlier and hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was referred to in a coy manner. Zimbabwe has suffered an incredible rise in prices in the past that actual measurement of inflation is rather moot. It was said that hyperinflation in that African country was so bad that prices doubles every 30 hours or so.

Just what is hyperinflation anyway? Investopedia has this to say:

Extremely rapid or out of control inflation. There is no precise numerical definition to hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a situation where the price increases are so out of control that the concept of inflation is meaningless.

Investopedia further explains…

When associated with depressions, hyperinflation often occurs when there is a large increase in the money supply not supported by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, resulting in an imbalance in the supply and demand for the money. Left unchecked this causes prices to increase, as the currency loses its value.

One of the most famous examples of hyperinflation occurred in Germany between January 1922 and November 1923. By some estimates, the average price level increased by a factor of 20 billion, doubling every 28 hours.

The experience of Zimbabwe is now for the books… they actually have multi-billion dollar notes so the term ‘Billionaire’ does not really mean anything there. The good news is Zimbabwe has since been able to curb its unbelievable hyperinflation and is trying to put it’s macroeconomic situation in order.

Looking at the situation of Zimbabwe or even other countries which registers double-digit inflation gives us a bit of relief and we must acknowledge that we are still a blessed nation despite our many issues.  There are many things we should be thankful for, we just need to be reminded from time to time.

Let them thank the LORD for his steadfast love, for his wondrous works to the children of man! – Psalm 107:15 (English Standard Version)

… conclusion

Let me go back to the economic gibberish once more. Whenever we curb our consumption, assuming that a substantial number of us do, we can actually prevent prices from rising and even cause it to decrease. It’s called the Law of Demand & Supply. Let us be refreshed on what this fundamental economic principle is all about – nosebleed courtesy of Investopedia.

“Supply and demand is perhaps one of the most fundamental concepts of economics and it is the backbone of a market economy. Demand refers to how much (quantity) of a product or service is desired by buyers. The quantity demanded is the amount of a product people are willing to buy at a certain price; the relationship between price and quantity demanded is known as the demand relationship. Supply represents how much the market can offer. The quantity supplied refers to the amount of a certain good producers are willing to supply when receiving a certain price. The correlation between price and how much of a good or service is supplied to the market is known as the supply relationship. Price, therefore, is a reflection of supply and demand. “

Simply put – increase in demand will result to a lower supply, therefore prices go up. A decrease in demand will result to an increase in supply which will drive prices down. Juxtapose this with a national consumption level, say on the way we spend on mobile communication. If we curb the way we use our mobile phones, the telecom companies will be alarmed with the reduction of their revenues and will entice subscribers with more promos, discounted rates and the like just so that consumption will revert to more comfortable levels. We can use the same argument for other goods and services like chicken, electricity, water, gasoline, etc. This should work, well at least in theory. History will reveal that some industries have reduced their prices because the demand level dipped and the only way for them to survive is to cut down prices. Many of the things we consume have disproportionately high profit margins such as soap, shampoo, detergent, toothpaste, etc. If we can only educate the consumers on how they can prevent prices from rising by manipulating our consumption, we can actually have healthier bank accounts.

If the others will not see the light and affect an epic change in the national scene, we can still do so on an individual level. All we need is the resolve to be more prudent, stay away from having a consumer lifestyle, care less about what our nosy neighbors think of us, practice delayed gratification and so forth and so on. Prices will always rise whether we like it or not but we will only be victims if we allow it to be so.

Let’s check our lifestyle: “Some who are poor pretend to be rich; Others who are rich pretend to be poor.” – Proverbs 13:7, NLT

Let’s be diligent: “Lazy hands make a man poor, but diligent hands bring wealth. – Proverbs 10:4, NIV